Variable weighed probability calculation

During the course of years I have developed a method in order to forecast the chance of a price increase of a particular ETF. I use a probability calculation in this method. Within this probability calculation many factors are included.

Which factors and how much they are weighed is my own private secret but I will mention some. Technical analysis is one of them. Another is the somewhat elusive concept of market sentiment.

So I take into account if investors are predominantly positive or negative. I also included several economic data. As I use a weighed probability calculation not all factors are weighed evenly. Some factors are more important than others.

After experimenting with my method for a considerable time I found out that I could optimize it further. The volatility of the markets have a great impact on returns and that is why I made the weighing factor adjustable to the volatility.

When markets move up and down heavily some factors are weighed stronger than in periods of a stable and calm market (when some other factors have a larger impact). Then I found out that my results where optimal for me.

Of course, my own method of trading does not work a 100% of the time without flaws. But with a good market spread that is not necessary in obtaining fine returns. 

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